We’ve seen a number of celestial spectacles in recent years—from total solar eclipses to stunning auroras—yet Earth will soon witness a space event that will dwarf them all.
In the next five years we will be visited by the asteroid 99942 Apophis. It will come so close to us that we will be able to see it with the naked eye.
In fact, the upcoming flyby is so extraordinary that the European Space Agency (ESA) called it “one of the rarest space events of our lifetime.”
“Scientists estimate that an asteroid the size of Apophis only comes this close to Earth every 5,000 to 10,000 years,” ESA added in a Twitter/X post.
The uniqueness of this event is due both to the asteroid’s proximity to Earth and its impressive size.
The space rock’s diameter is about 375 meters (1,230 feet), making it a massive rocket.
Images of Apophis taken in three wavelengths(ESAHerschel/PACS/MACH-11/MPE/B.Altieri (ESAC) and C. Kiss (Konkoly Observatory))
Apophis was first discovered in 2004 and was classified by experts as level 2 on the Turin impact hazard scale.
According to this index, a value of 0 means that the probability of an impact on our planet is more or less zero, while 10 means that a collision is “certain” and “can trigger a global climate catastrophe that could threaten the future of civilization as we know it, regardless of whether it hits land or the sea.”
Although Level 2 is low – it designates objects that “pass fairly close, but not very unusually close, to Earth” – it is not low enough to disregard the potential risks.
Indeed, observations in December 2004 upgraded the asteroid to level 4 on the Torino Scale, increasing the probability of it hitting Earth in 2029 to 1.6 percent.
And if one percent doesn’t sound too scary, just consider that according to NASA calculations, a one percent chance of collision means an object is still capable of causing “regional devastation.”
In fact, in all the years that space agency experts have been searching for and monitoring near-Earth objects (NEOs), no object has exceeded level 4 on the Torino Scale.
And its potential threat to Earth even earned the asteroid the name Apophis, in honor of the ancient Egyptian god of darkness and disorder.
The good news is that NASA has since stressed that “new telescope observations are most likely to [Apophis’s] Reassignment to level 0.”
Although we will experience some close encounters with the asteroid in the coming years, collisions in 2029, 2036 and 2068 have been ruled out.
“An impact in 2068 is no longer within the realm of possibility,” said Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies in a statement, adding: “Our calculations show no impact risk for at least the next 100 years.”
Nevertheless, Apophis will come particularly close in 2029, coming within 32,000 kilometers (20,000 miles) of the Earth’s surface – closer than some of our man-made satellites.
It will be so close that it should be visible from the Eastern Hemisphere without the aid of a telescope or binoculars, as IFL Science Remarks.
During the approach, NASA plans to visit the asteroid with its asteroid sampler OSIRIS APEX.
“Our planet’s gravity is expected to alter the asteroid’s orbit, changing its rotation speed and type, and possibly triggering earthquakes or landslides that alter its surface,” NASA said of its planned mission. “OSIRIS-APEX will allow scientists on Earth to observe these changes.”
“In addition, the OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft will head toward the surface of Apophis – a ‘rocky’ asteroid made of silicate (or rocky) material and a mixture of metallic nickel and iron – and fire its thrusters to kick up loose rock and dust,” it said.
“This maneuver will give scientists insight into the composition of the material just beneath the asteroid’s surface.”
The ESA also hopes to be able to pay a visit to the asteroid. The study of the flyby will help us to better prepare ourselves for possible collisions with similar objects in the future.
“Earth’s gravity will ‘stretch’ and ‘squeeze’ Apophis, triggering landslides and revealing much about the asteroid’s material, structure, density and cohesion,” the space agency said.
“This knowledge will help us protect the Earth in the future.”
Still, in this case, it’s nice to know that the asteroid is not a threat, but just a rare and beautiful sight.
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