FT poll: French people trust Marine Le Pen’s RN the most on economic issues

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Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition faces an uphill battle to convince voters that his opponents are bringing about the economic collapse, after recent opinion polls suggested the far-right Rassemblement National was more trusted on the issue.

Macron’s ensemble is lagging behind its far-right and left-wing competitors in the final week of the election campaign before the decisive first round of voting on Sunday.

It is finding it difficult to convey its core message that it is the only credible party that can control the economy and public finances.

According to an Ipsos poll conducted on June 19 and 20 for the Financial Times, 25 percent of respondents have the greatest confidence in Marine Le Pen’s RN to make the right decisions on economic issues.

This figure comes despite the party’s unfunded tax cut and spending plans and its lack of governing experience. By comparison, the left-leaning New Popular Front (NFP) achieved 22 percent and Macron’s coalition only 20 percent.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who leads the Ensemble campaign, reiterated its central message on Sunday, telling radio station RTL that France would face an “economic and social bloodbath” and a “destruction of the middle class” if the far-right or the NFP came to power.

Attal stressed that the centrists had gained momentum and gained several points in votes since their crushing defeat in the European elections on June 9. However, in line with other opinion polls, the Ipsos poll showed that Ensemble had received 19.5 percent of the vote in the first round, well behind the RN and its allies with 35.5 percent and the left-wing NFP with 29.5 percent.

Ensemble’s vote share was worryingly close to the 12.5 percent threshold of registered voters needed for each district to qualify for the July 7 runoff.

Despite calls from his own camp to stay out of the election campaign so it does not become a referendum on his presidency, Macron addressed a letter to the French people on Sunday evening defending his record and urging the French to reject the extremists and vote for the moderates. “This third way is the best for our country,” he said. He also insisted that he would remain president until 2027.

The RN will flesh out its legislative agenda at an event on Monday as it enters the final week of campaigning before the first round of voting. Ensemble and the NFP have both criticised the RN for failing to detail how it will finance its spending plans.

As a sign of the importance of the election for France’s relations with the EU, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on ARD television on Sunday that he “hopes that parties that are not Le Pen, so to speak, will be successful in the election.” In doing so, he rarely interfered in French politics.

The Ipsos poll found the RN ranked first on improving living standards, tackling the deficit and cutting taxes. Notably, it also came first on reducing unemployment, a major success of Macron’s presidency, which saw unemployment fall to a 15-year low before rising again last year.

Notably, 23 percent of respondents said they trusted RN the most to reduce the public deficit and debt.

Macron’s alliance and the NFP, which is pursuing extensive tax and spending plans, were tied at 17 percent.

The data seems to confirm the message that Macron’s campaign staff say they are hearing on doorsteps: After trying everything else, voters are ready to give the RN a chance.

“This dynamic is undoubtedly linked to the RN’s ‘normalisation’ strategy, but also to the disappointment caused by the left under President François Hollande and later by Macronism, as well as the difficulties the left has had in forming a credible and coherent opposition to Macron,” says Mathieu Gallard, pollster at Ipsos.

“In this context, the RN is perceived as a party that is, if not competent, then at least no less competent than other political formations.”

An Elabe poll for BFM TV and La Tribune Dimanche published on Saturday also found that the RN’s economic program is perceived more positively than that of the left or Macron’s alliance.

However, it was found that 62 percent of respondents did not consider the RN’s program to be credible, while only 36 percent considered it to be credible.

The far right fought in the 2022 presidential election with measures that independently cost more than 100 billion euros per year. Jordan Bardella, president of the RN and its candidate for prime minister, has retracted these promises in recent days and announced that he would first conduct an audit of public finances.

But the party is determined to immediately cut VAT on energy and fuel and reverse Macron’s increase in the retirement age from 64 to 62. These two measures alone could cost 20 to 30 billion euros a year, according to analysts.

Economists warn that the RN’s plans lack any serious proposals for raising revenue.

Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the IMF, described the RN’s policy as “financially irresponsible. Gifts cost money. The money is not there, at least not in the program.”

The survey was conducted among 2,000 registered voters aged 18 and over.

This story has been updated to add final, adjusted voting intent numbers.

Additional reporting by Janina Conboye