Week ahead: First round for Biden vs. Trump and the early elections in France

Hello and welcome to the work week.

Ding, ding. Take your corners for the first US presidential debate on Thursday — although it will look like a rematch of 2020 with President Joe Biden and his challenger, former President Donald Trump, on stage. It will likely be the TikTok-ready exchanges that get the most attention from American voters. And as FT columnist Ed Luce writes from Washington, it’s not certain who has the most to lose or gain in this mother of all US verbal sparring. One truly remarkable fact is that Biden and Trump together make up two-thirds of the age of the country they are vying for.

Not to be outdone, on the other side of the Atlantic, the two main candidates for the UK general election campaign will also face off on the BBC. With the Conservative Party in poor poll numbers and a poll even predicting the loss of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, one wonders how useful this head-to-head will be in changing voters’ minds ahead of the final week of the campaign. Could this be the most skewed result in British electoral history?

France is voting this week. Sunday will see the first round of the parliamentary elections hastily called by President Emmanuel Macron. Polls suggest a strong result for the far-right Rassemblement National. I recommend reading this FT explainer on the likely results.

Away from politics, Paris can look forward to the Olympic train coming to town as the countdown begins a month before the opening ceremony. In the UK, King Charles will host Japan’s Emperor Naruhito with a series of events in central London and Windsor, including a state banquet on Tuesday.

Jimmy Lai, the British national and former newspaper owner arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist Party, will face a hearing in Hong Kong’s Court of Appeal on Monday. Lai and six co-defendants are seeking to have their convictions for unlawful assembly overturned following their participation in a demonstration in August 2019. There are serious concerns about the state of Hong Kong’s justice system, as reflected in this forceful FT commentary by former Court of Appeal judge Jonathan Sumption, who resigned from his post as non-permanent foreign judge at the Court of Appeal earlier this month along with Lawrence Collins.

The corporate earnings tap was turned on again this week, with retail being the dominant theme. HM, Walgreens Boots Alliance And HalfordsPlus Nike And FedExAlso look out for a strategy update from Lloyds Banking Group on Thursday. We’ll also celebrate the departure of two more companies from the UK stock exchange. For an informed opinion on the debate over London’s future as a capital raising engine, click here.

The economic data series will be led by final assessments of first-quarter GDP in the US and UK, as well as a handful of surveys and speeches from central bankers. Read more below.

Just one thing . . .

Do you watch football? As an England fan, I can confirm that it’s best done with friends, if only to show them that there’s more to life than football – God help you if you watch England games any other way. The FT has its own opinion on whether we’ve had too much of the sport.

Wednesday is the 28th anniversary of the 1996 Euro semi-final between England and Germany at Wembley. The teams drew 1-1 before a goalless extra-time penalty shootout in which Gareth Southgate missed the Three Lions’ crucial sixth penalty, allowing Andreas Möller to score the winning goal. I probably don’t need to tell you that Southgate is now England’s manager, and perhaps not that his team’s final group game is on Tuesday. Find a safe place to watch.

What are your priorities for the next seven days? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or click reply if you’re reading this in your inbox.

Personally, I will be out of the office for the next seven days, enjoying post-exam time with my eldest and then taking trips to the university with my middle child. I leave you in the very capable hands of my colleague David Hindley and will be back in a fortnight.

Economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more detailed list of what to expect this week in terms of corporate reports and economic data.

Monday

• Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will deliver an online presentation entitled “Workers, Jobs, Growth and Inflation – Today and Tomorrow” to the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, followed by a press conference.

• Tui Group The shares are expected to be delisted from the London Stock Exchange following shareholder approval at the company’s annual general meeting in February.

• USA: Annual check of the American economy by the IMF

Tuesday

• Germany: Monthly incoming orders data from the construction industry

• Results: carnival Question 2, FedEx Question 4, saga Trading statement for the Annual General Meeting

Wednesday

• Australia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for May

• USA: Federal Reserve publishes results of its annual bank stress test

• Results: AO World FY, General Mills Question 4, Liontrust Asset Management FY, Micron technology Question 3, PayChex Question 4, Volex GJ

Thursday

• IndividualThe transfer of the company’s primary listing to the United States will take effect following approval by shareholders at a general meeting in May.

• Australia: Labour market statistics for May

• United Kingdom: Bank of England report on the stability of the British financial system

• USA: final GDP figures for the first quarter

• Results: Bunzl Trade declaration, Halfords FY, Curries FY, HM HY, Lloyds Banking Group Strategy update, Moon Pig FY, James Latham FY, Nike Question 4, Serco HY, Walgreens Boots Alliance Question 3, Watches from Switzerland GJ

Friday

• Central Banking Series of the Global Interdependence Center: Paris. Speakers include Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin and Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau.

• EU: European Central Bank survey on consumer expectations

• Germany: Labour market statistics for May

• New Zealand: Matariki. Financial markets closed.

• UK: final Q1 GDP figures plus Zoopla house price index

• USA: Data on personal income and spending in May

• Results: Record GJ

World events

Here’s a look at other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Hong Kong: Hearing before the Supreme Court of Appeal for Jimmy Lai, the British citizen and former newspaper owner who was arrested in 2020 for his pro-democracy activities and criticism of the Chinese Communist Party.

• USA: Genaro García Luna, former Mexican Minister of Public Security, is to be sentenced in a New York court after being found guilty of continuing criminal activity, conspiracy to traffic drugs, conspiracy to import drugs and making false statements.

Tuesday

• China: The 15th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum’s new champions begins in Dalian and lasts until Thursday.

• France: Televised debate ahead of the French parliamentary elections pitting Prime Minister Gabriel Attal against Rassemblement National President Jordan Bardella and left-wing Alliance leader Manuel Bompard.

• Great Britain: King Charles and Queen Camilla officially welcome the Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako for their state visit. A day in London ends with a state banquet at Buckingham Palace.

• USA: Former Prime Minister of the British Virgin Islands Andrew Fahie is sentenced in a Miami courtroom. He was found guilty of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to launder money, interstate and foreign travel in support of organized crime, and other charges.

Wednesday

• Russia: Hearing in trial against Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich to begin under secrecy.

• UK: The BBC is hosting a head-to-head election debate in Nottingham between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer. Separately, the Glastonbury Festival of Music and Arts will open in fields near Pilton, Somerset. Around 200,000 people are expected to attend.

• USA: The Rim of the Pacific 2024 (RIMPAC 24) military exercise begins. The biennial exercise, which will take place this year in Honolulu, Hawaii, involves 40 surface ships, three submarines, 14 national land forces, more than 150 aircraft and over 25,000 troops. It will run until August 2.

Thursday

• EU: Meeting of Heads of State or Government of the European Council chaired by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.

• United Kingdom: Junior doctors in England begin a five-day strike amid the ongoing pay dispute between the British Medical Association and the government.

• USA: CNN hosts the first televised debate of the presidential election campaign between incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Friday

Saturday

• Italy: The 111th Tour de France cycling race begins with the first stage, which starts this year in Florence.

• Mauritania: Presidential elections

Sunday

• Canada: Princess Anne visits St. John’s for the commemoration of the centenary of the Newfoundland National War Memorial and the reinterment of the remains of an unknown Newfoundland soldier from World War I.

• EU: Belgium’s six-month EU Council Presidency ends. Hungary takes over tomorrow.

• France: First round of early parliamentary elections