NASA practices crazy scenario in which an elusive asteroid heads toward Earth

What if a newly discovered asteroid was likely to hit Earth in 14 years?

But that’s not all. This threatening chunk of space, measuring about 100 to 320 meters in diameter, has just disappeared behind the Sun, making crucial observations impossible for the next seven months.

To prepare for such a disturbing scenarioNASA just completed an exercise to “determine and evaluate our ability as a nation to respond effectively to the threat posed by a potentially hazardous asteroid or comet.” A potential collision with an asteroid or comet can introduce a number of uncertainties, which the space agency further tested during the recent fifth Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise.

“The impact of a large asteroid may be the only natural disaster that humanity’s technology allows it to predict years in advance and take action to prevent,” said Lindley Johnson, NASA’s Planetary Defense Officer Emeritus, in a statement.

Importantly, there have been no known asteroids on a collision course with Earth for at least 100 years, and the likelihood of a major impact in our lifetime is extremely low, according to astronomers. Planetary protection agencies have never had to sound the alarm about an impending impact—although you’ve no doubt heard sensational news about threatening asteroids over the years.

“We never actually issued a warning,” Johnson previously told Mashable. (But they did inform the public about what some interesting asteroids were doing.)

“We never actually issued a warning.”

But at some point an impact is inevitable. “Yes, Earth has been hit by asteroids throughout history, and it will happen again,” NASA states.

Mashable Speed ​​of Light

In the most recent asteroid collision scenario, the space agency presented a hypothetical object 100 to 320 meters in diameter that had a 72 percent chance of hitting Earth. While something of that size is nowhere near the largest class of asteroid, it could be enormously destructive. Take, for example, the 180-meter-deep “Meteor Crater” that landed in what is now Arizona 50,000 years ago. The culprit was probably 30 to 52 meters across, but caused an explosion big enough to destroy Kansas City.

As the hypothetical trajectory below shows, this asteroid passes through densely populated areas like Dallas, which would almost certainly trigger a national emergency, although the exact trajectory is not known. The scenario’s impact is expected in 14 years, in July 2038, giving countries relatively little time to prepare – especially given a seven-month monitoring gap. From initial observations, the object’s size, composition, and trajectory are unknown.

“To further complicate this year’s hypothetical scenario, essential follow-up observations would have to be delayed by at least seven months – a critical loss of time – as the asteroid passes behind the Sun as seen from Earth,” the space agency said.

This latest planetary defense exercise underscores the importance of monitoring near-Earth objects (those that come within about 30 million miles of Earth’s orbit around the sun). Fourteen years is a tight timeline.

“You need to know what’s coming, when it’s coming, and how hard it’s going to hit,” Eric Christensen, director of the Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona, which is searching for new Earths, previously told Mashable.

“You need to know what’s coming, when it’s coming and how hard it’s going to hit.”

Among the approaches discussed by NASA, FEMA and other partners was a flyby of the approaching object, which would greatly improve our understanding of its composition, rotation, velocity and more. Will it break into smaller pieces in the Earth’s atmosphere? Is it debris-like or solid? How likely is it to hit the ocean? Also discussed was the major operation “Purpose-Built Rendezvous,” in which a spaceship is used to deflect an object.

Asteroid deflection is a realistic possibility for the future. In 2022, NASA crashed a refrigerator-sized spacecraft into a stadium-sized asteroid in the hope of simply nudge it. It was an unprecedented, successful test – it proved that humanity could change the trajectory of a threatening asteroid should one ever come our way. The impact shortened the loop of the asteroid Dimorphos around its parent asteroid (they orbit the Sun as a pair or binary star system) by a whopping 33 minutes and 15 seconds – while the original goal was to shorten it by at least 73 seconds.

Ultimately, this recent tabletop impact exercise resulted in a number of “high-level takeaways”. One glaring issue is the uncertainties associated with planning for a likely impact. Participants recommended “developing the ability to quickly launch a NEO [near-Earth object] reconnaissance mission”, which could also include the repurposing of existing spacecraft.

Fortunately, NASA and its planetary defense partners will continue to practice hypothetical asteroid threats. It is our duty to be prepared, even if the overall risk is low.

The risks of an asteroid impact

Here are today’s general risks from small and very large asteroids or comets. (Importantly, even relatively small chunks still pose a threat, as demonstrated by the surprising 17-meter chunk that exploded over Russia in 2013, shattering people’s windows.)

• Every day, about 100 tons of dust and sand-sized particles fall through the Earth’s atmosphere and burn up.

• Every year, on average, one “car-sized asteroid” crashes through our sky and explodes, NASA explains.

• Impacts of objects with a diameter of about 140 meters occur every 10,000 to 20,000 years.

• The impact of a boulder perhaps half a mile or more in diameter that could “kill dinosaurs” occurs every 100 million years.