When will the next big solar storm hit Earth? New insights into the Sun’s magnetic field could improve predictions

New research suggests that the Sun’s magnetic field originates much closer to the surface than previously thought. This finding could help predict periods of extreme solar storms, such as Earth struck earlier this month.

The magnetic field appears to originate 32,000 kilometers below the sun’s surface. Previous calculations have located the roots of this process more than 210,000 kilometers deeper, an international team of researchers reported on Wednesday.

The Sun’s intense magnetic energy is the source of solar flares and plasma outbursts known as coronal mass ejections. When directed toward Earth, they can breathtaking northern lights but also Disrupt power and communications supplies.

“We don’t yet understand the Sun well enough to make accurate predictions about space weather,” lead author Geoffrey Vasil of the University of Edinburgh said in an email.

The latest findings, published in the journal Nature, “will be an important step toward finally elucidating” this mysterious process known as the solar dynamo, added co-author Daniel Lecoanet of Northwestern University.

This image from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows, at right, a solar flare from May 14, 2024, taken in the extreme ultraviolet light part of the spectrum, colored red and yellow.

/ AP


Galileo was among the first astronomers to point a telescope to the sky to study sunspots in the early 17th century. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections often occur near sunspots, which are dark patches the size of the Earth that are located near the most intense regions of the Sun’s changing magnetic field.

Vasil and his team developed new models of the interaction between the Sun’s magnetic field and the plasma flow, which varies at different latitudes in an 11-year cycle. They fed their calculations into a NASA supercomputer in Northern California – the same one used in the 2015 film The Martian to determine the best flight route to rescue the main character. The results suggested a flat magnetic field, and further research is needed to confirm this.

The modeling was “overly simplified,” said Ellen Zweibel of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who was not part of the team, in an accompanying editorial.

The results are fascinating and “will certainly inspire future studies,” Zweibel said.

Preparing for “potentially much more dangerous” storm

The new findings should improve long-term solar forecasts and allow scientists to better predict the strength of our star’s future cycles. The Sun is approaching its highest level of activity in the current 11-year cycle, hence the recent outbursts.

Powerful solar flares and eruptions of billions of tons of plasma earlier this month triggered severe solar storms that created auroras in unexpected places. Last week, the Sun spewed the largest solar eruption in almost 20 yearsbut it avoided the earth.

The Solar Ultraviolet Imager GOES-16 shows the Sun on May 14, 2024, around the time it emitted its strongest radiation output of its solar cycle so far.

NOAA Center for Space Weather Prediction


This came just days after an “extreme” G5 geomagnetic storm hit Earth after NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center warned of the possibility of a major impact.

A better understanding of the sun can ensure that “we are prepared when the next – possibly much more dangerous – storm hits the Earth,” Lecoanet said.

Earth is currently in solar cycle 25, which began in 2020. The last cycle had an average length of 11 years and was the weakest solar cycle in a century, the National Weather Service said. Although the current cycle was forecast to be quite weak and similar to the previous one, NOAA officials observed “a steady increase in sunspot activity” from the beginning.

Li Cohen contributed to this report.

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