Upper left (right) panel: numbers (frequencies) of Earth CAPHAs and Mars CAPHAs determined from simulations and actual observations. Lower left panel: Distribution of relative distances between CAPHAs and the planet. The relative distance of a CAPHA in percent is defined as the ratio between its 𝑟Minimum and 𝑟critical (0.05 AU for Earth CAPHAs and 0.036 AU for Mars CAPHAs). Blue and reddish-purple lines almost coincide. The yellow histogram shows the actual observed distribution of Earth CAPHAs. Bottom right: Distribution of the velocities of CAPHAs relative to the planet. The yellow histogram shows the actual observed distribution of Earth CAPHAs. Credit: arXiv (2024). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2405.02614
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Upper left (right) panel: numbers (frequencies) of Earth CAPHAs and Mars CAPHAs determined from simulations and actual observations. Lower left panel: Distribution of relative distances between CAPHAs and the planet. The relative distance of a CAPHA in percent is defined as the ratio between its 𝑟Minimum and 𝑟critical (0.05 AU for Earth CAPHAs and 0.036 AU for Mars CAPHAs). Blue and reddish-purple lines almost coincide. The yellow histogram shows the actual observed distribution of Earth CAPHAs. Bottom right: Distribution of the velocities of CAPHAs relative to the planet. The yellow histogram shows the actual observed distribution of Earth CAPHAs. Credit: arXiv (2024). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2405.02614
A team of astronomers from Nanjing University has found evidence that Mars likely has more potentially dangerous asteroids in its path than Earth. In their study, published on arXiv On the preprint server, the group examined the number of potentially dangerous asteroids large enough to cause a large impact if they hit Mars and compared them with similar estimates for Earth.
A lot of work is currently being done to identify near-Earth objects (NEOs) – asteroids or comets – that could be on a collision course with our planet. The hope is that if a large NEO that is likely to hit Earth is found, a means could be found to change its course. In this new experiment, the research team examined the same possible threat to future humans living on Mars.
In their work, the researchers examined a subset of NEOs, called potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), that are large enough to cause problems if they hit Mars and that are likely to do so – or at least very close to each other to approach.
Using data from previous Mars impacts – including data on asteroids that cross Mars and Mars’ proximity to the asteroid belt – the researchers created simulations showing how frequently PHAs are likely to hit Mars.
They found that the probability of a PHA hitting Mars is about 2.5 to three times that of Earth. More specifically, they found that there are about 17,000 PHAs that could slip near or hit Mars, and about 4,700 on Earth.
The team also suspects that there are 52 PHAs that are likely in orbit with Mars and visible from Earth. This suggests that it should be possible to observe a collision or near-collision if the timing could be determined.
The research team also notes that new telescopes coming online in the near future will likely provide much better estimates of NEOs (or NMOs in the case of Mars) and also PHAs for both.
More information:
Yufan Fane Zhou et al, MARTIANS (MARs2020, TIANwen and so on) would see more potentially dangerous asteroids than Earthlings, arXiv (2024). DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2405.02614
Magazine information:
arXiv
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